Name calling and finger pointing serve no useful purpose; The U.S., EU and Russia need to turn down the volume. The Ukraine is and has been a" bankrupt" economy for 50+ years. In addition, as with many of the former Republics of the Soviet Union, there are serious ethnic divides. Economic issues cannot be reasonably addressed in absence of resolving ethnic divides. The resolution of matters should be self evident to all but the politicians on both sides of the pond.
The U.S and EU via NATO were eager to divide Yugoslavia into many ethnic pieces recognizing each as an independent State and incorporating the same as part of the U.N. You would think a plebiscite/referendum within each ethnic region of the Ukraine would be welcome by all. Alas, geopolitics does not bode well for reasonable solutions to underlying and long simmering issues of ethnicity and ideology. Each region of what the West view as the Ukraine, should be entitled to the right of self determination. Lines the circumscribe what we consider nation/states have been re-drawn many times within the past 100 years. Once the ethnic divides are resolved by the separate regions of the Ukraine, the boundary line can be re-drawn.
By re-drawing the boundary lines, both the U.S/EU and Russia will be able to determine economic commitments to resolving the "bankruptcy" of the region. For the purpose of illustration, should western Ukraine [ once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire circa 1867-1918 ] determine to be independent; than the West/ US-EU would have to come to the financial rescue of approximately
22 million people and Russia would be burdened with dealing the remaining 26 or so million people of annexed or affiliate regions.
The bottom line, rhetoric aside, is how to divide, manage, reconstitute and fund the roughly 48 million folks within the present boundary of Ukraine. Without first resolving ethnic divides, "loans" US-EU largess , and the financial contributions of Russia remain unknown, and bloodshed will continue as it has for hundreds of years in the area. The U.S.government has jumped into a cesspool with no measurable benefit to U.S. citizens and taxpayers.
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Saturday, May 4, 2013
ABORTION, GAY MARRIAGE, GUN CONTROL AND MORE
The U.S. Congress has been " asleep at the switch " for well over 100 years. Instead of the 16th Amendment ( 1913 - Income Tax ) designed to line the pockets of politicians and give birth to BIG BROTHER, a Congress of statesmen, instead of politicians, would have amended the U.S. Constitution to provide a semblance of democracy by National Referendum. An Amendment providing for a National Referendum would have allowed the citizenry a say in issues and matters affecting the U.S. and their lives.
Had the Congress of the day acted responsibly and passed a National Referendum amendment, the current Congress would not be stalemated on issues like: gun control gay marriage, abortion, immigration, involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, or the orderly succession of States no longer finding it beneficial to be part of the the U.S.
Congress does not want the citizenry to have any direct power or say in matters and affairs that affect the Nation, and the lives of the citizenry. The U.S. system vis-a-vis congress and a republican form of government, is broken, and a far, far cry from a democracy. Isn't it time for the U.S. citizenry to have a more direct say, and voice, in government ? One small step to brake the stalemates of Congress would be to Amend the U.S. Constitution to provide for National Referendums; an Amendment providing for National Referendums would also be one small step in the direction of democracy, SMALL STEPS THE U.S. CONGRESS REFUSES TO TAKE.
Had the Congress of the day acted responsibly and passed a National Referendum amendment, the current Congress would not be stalemated on issues like: gun control gay marriage, abortion, immigration, involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, or the orderly succession of States no longer finding it beneficial to be part of the the U.S.
Congress does not want the citizenry to have any direct power or say in matters and affairs that affect the Nation, and the lives of the citizenry. The U.S. system vis-a-vis congress and a republican form of government, is broken, and a far, far cry from a democracy. Isn't it time for the U.S. citizenry to have a more direct say, and voice, in government ? One small step to brake the stalemates of Congress would be to Amend the U.S. Constitution to provide for National Referendums; an Amendment providing for National Referendums would also be one small step in the direction of democracy, SMALL STEPS THE U.S. CONGRESS REFUSES TO TAKE.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Say Goodbye to the Euro - it's just a matter of time
HEADS, UP !!!
Let's be frank, The EU ( European Union ) is the economic step-child of NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization ), the U.S. concoction of nations aligned against the then U.S.S.R.. NATO is nothing short of political arbitrage, with the U.S. at the helm; the EU is an economic derivative without direct U.S. control, spawned from the 12 protocols of the Treaty of Rome, 1957. A neat idea at the time, 1957, and for a short time thereafter while then participant nations, lead by Germany, were experiencing unprecedented economic growth. The focus was on economic growth experienced by the core nations: Germany, France and Italy; Germany doing the heavy lifting. Things were humming along when U.S. Financial Institutions, the pied-pipers of greed, lead the world into a financial depression. The U.S. lead depression exposed the weakness and flaws of the Euro and left the 17 Euro subscriber states to flounder.
Greece was the tip of the iceberg engendering chatter from the ECB ( European Central Bank ) resulting in leveraged support for European Banks holding sovereign debt, in short the bail-out of Greece. Portugal, Spain and Italy are on the short list, and next in line. Forget the economic pundits, media pundits and the like, simple population demographics reveals the fundamental flaw when 17 EU /Euro nations with disparate populations and productivity, subscribe to a single currency, the Euro.
Aside from the gibberish of economists and bankers, it all boils down to population and demographics: how many working German's will be willing to support the life styles of 130 + million people in the non-productive nations of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy + 11 other Euro subscribers like Ireland. Perhaps it's to early to include Italy, but things are not well in Italy. So take Greece, Portugal and Spain with combined populations of around 70 million and compare it with the population of Germany 82 million, 26% under 18 and 21% who are over 65, leaving an estimated workforce of 44 million minus 5.7% unemployment or 41.5 million working German's to carry the load and support the lifestyles of 70 million Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, with 61 million Italians soon to follow. Okay, France, with an estimated workforce of 30 million but 10% unemployment, 27 mil net [ 72% of the French workforce is in Services, i.e., non-industrial ], may be of some help, but neither Germany or France can sustain the burden of 15 failing member state economies. Just how many people can one working man or woman [ mainly German ] carry on their shoulders: two (2), three (3), four (4); say goodbye to the Euro.
Let's be frank, The EU ( European Union ) is the economic step-child of NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization ), the U.S. concoction of nations aligned against the then U.S.S.R.. NATO is nothing short of political arbitrage, with the U.S. at the helm; the EU is an economic derivative without direct U.S. control, spawned from the 12 protocols of the Treaty of Rome, 1957. A neat idea at the time, 1957, and for a short time thereafter while then participant nations, lead by Germany, were experiencing unprecedented economic growth. The focus was on economic growth experienced by the core nations: Germany, France and Italy; Germany doing the heavy lifting. Things were humming along when U.S. Financial Institutions, the pied-pipers of greed, lead the world into a financial depression. The U.S. lead depression exposed the weakness and flaws of the Euro and left the 17 Euro subscriber states to flounder.
Greece was the tip of the iceberg engendering chatter from the ECB ( European Central Bank ) resulting in leveraged support for European Banks holding sovereign debt, in short the bail-out of Greece. Portugal, Spain and Italy are on the short list, and next in line. Forget the economic pundits, media pundits and the like, simple population demographics reveals the fundamental flaw when 17 EU /Euro nations with disparate populations and productivity, subscribe to a single currency, the Euro.
Aside from the gibberish of economists and bankers, it all boils down to population and demographics: how many working German's will be willing to support the life styles of 130 + million people in the non-productive nations of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy + 11 other Euro subscribers like Ireland. Perhaps it's to early to include Italy, but things are not well in Italy. So take Greece, Portugal and Spain with combined populations of around 70 million and compare it with the population of Germany 82 million, 26% under 18 and 21% who are over 65, leaving an estimated workforce of 44 million minus 5.7% unemployment or 41.5 million working German's to carry the load and support the lifestyles of 70 million Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, with 61 million Italians soon to follow. Okay, France, with an estimated workforce of 30 million but 10% unemployment, 27 mil net [ 72% of the French workforce is in Services, i.e., non-industrial ], may be of some help, but neither Germany or France can sustain the burden of 15 failing member state economies. Just how many people can one working man or woman [ mainly German ] carry on their shoulders: two (2), three (3), four (4); say goodbye to the Euro.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
PHANTOM GDP
All eyes were on the U.S. , while the U.S. House, Senate and President Obama
jockeyed for position on raising the U.S. Debt Ceiling. The Dollars position, as the principal world trading currency, was at stake while those in Washington [D.C.], and in academic circles, squabbled over they way, means and impact of raising he debt ceiling. Drama aside, it was a forgone conclusion that a "deal" would be done and the
debt ceiling would be increased to accommodate U.S. deficit spending.
The side-bar to Washington's theatrics, economic growth [ measured in GDP ], was hinted at in the House passed [H.B. #2560] Cut, Cap and Balance bill, but never brought to the floor by Senator Harry Reid, for Senate vote. Gross Domestic Product, GDP,is the benchmark measure used internationally to snapshot a nations economic growth. The U.S. snapshots GDP on a quarterly, basis; and, during the quarter, when the debt ceiling drama was playing in Washington, the U.S. GDP had stalled at around 1%. Without growth, government revenue, remains stagnant, absent an increase in taxes, often masked as fees, to offset government spending.
The way GDP has traditionally been calculated [ all goods and services ] essentially is a miss-measure that overstates real economic growth by a factor equal to the amount of government costs and services included in the GDP computation. Since the miss-measure GDP computation has universal appeal, true economic growth remains phantom to the delight of Wall Street, London and world financial markets. The GDP miss-measure is a harbinger for future financial melt-downs.
Among the minority of others, China, appears recognize the GDP anomaly, by its recent downgrade of U.S. debt obligations. Others will likely realize the U.S. has been and will continue, for the foreseeable future, to experience negative GDP. This has ominous consequences for todays inter-connected world, and is one factor in the flight to gold and other precious metals. Absent an accurate measure of a nations economic growth, and a stable benchmark currency, the surplus capital necessary for economic growth, will be locked in gold and precious metals, and world economies will unravel.
This U.S. and U.S. dollar, can no longer serve as a benchmark currency. The failure of the U.S. to balance its budget, per the U.S. Balanced Budget Act of 1985, yes 1985, was the first signal to the world that new measures and new benchmarks would be necessary if sustainable, shared, economic growth were to be achieved on a world basis. The latest U.S. budget antics [yr. 2011, 26 years later ] are a signal that the U.S. is in a downward economic spiral and can no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force, and the U.S. dollar, a reliable currency.
The U.S., as a system of governance, has displayed it's inherent flaws; arrogance, fashion, feelings, and ego, trump reason. New measures and a new type of benchmark currency will be needed before financial stability can be achieved on a world basis; otherwise,one country will fail, followed by the next, and by the next; signs of which are appearing in Europe and with the Euro.
jockeyed for position on raising the U.S. Debt Ceiling. The Dollars position, as the principal world trading currency, was at stake while those in Washington [D.C.], and in academic circles, squabbled over they way, means and impact of raising he debt ceiling. Drama aside, it was a forgone conclusion that a "deal" would be done and the
debt ceiling would be increased to accommodate U.S. deficit spending.
The side-bar to Washington's theatrics, economic growth [ measured in GDP ], was hinted at in the House passed [H.B. #2560] Cut, Cap and Balance bill, but never brought to the floor by Senator Harry Reid, for Senate vote. Gross Domestic Product, GDP,is the benchmark measure used internationally to snapshot a nations economic growth. The U.S. snapshots GDP on a quarterly, basis; and, during the quarter, when the debt ceiling drama was playing in Washington, the U.S. GDP had stalled at around 1%. Without growth, government revenue, remains stagnant, absent an increase in taxes, often masked as fees, to offset government spending.
The way GDP has traditionally been calculated [ all goods and services ] essentially is a miss-measure that overstates real economic growth by a factor equal to the amount of government costs and services included in the GDP computation. Since the miss-measure GDP computation has universal appeal, true economic growth remains phantom to the delight of Wall Street, London and world financial markets. The GDP miss-measure is a harbinger for future financial melt-downs.
Among the minority of others, China, appears recognize the GDP anomaly, by its recent downgrade of U.S. debt obligations. Others will likely realize the U.S. has been and will continue, for the foreseeable future, to experience negative GDP. This has ominous consequences for todays inter-connected world, and is one factor in the flight to gold and other precious metals. Absent an accurate measure of a nations economic growth, and a stable benchmark currency, the surplus capital necessary for economic growth, will be locked in gold and precious metals, and world economies will unravel.
This U.S. and U.S. dollar, can no longer serve as a benchmark currency. The failure of the U.S. to balance its budget, per the U.S. Balanced Budget Act of 1985, yes 1985, was the first signal to the world that new measures and new benchmarks would be necessary if sustainable, shared, economic growth were to be achieved on a world basis. The latest U.S. budget antics [yr. 2011, 26 years later ] are a signal that the U.S. is in a downward economic spiral and can no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force, and the U.S. dollar, a reliable currency.
The U.S., as a system of governance, has displayed it's inherent flaws; arrogance, fashion, feelings, and ego, trump reason. New measures and a new type of benchmark currency will be needed before financial stability can be achieved on a world basis; otherwise,one country will fail, followed by the next, and by the next; signs of which are appearing in Europe and with the Euro.
Friday, July 29, 2011
THE IRONY OF THE U.S. SPENDING BILLIONS FOR DEMOCRACY IN LIBYA
The U.S., is currently engaged in two wars of remarkable similarity. One in Washington, D.C., Senate Democrats vs. House Republicans over the debt limit, and one in Libya, under the guise of NATO.
The civil war in Libya is more traditional: guns, bombing, thousands of civilian casualties, costing U.S. Taxpayers Billions of dollars. The war in Washington is the "civilized" version of a civil war fought with rhetoric and falsifications. In Libya and in Washington, "high ground" is sought by each side. The irony is, the U.S./NATO war in Libya is ostensibly being fought so that the Libyan people will have a direct say in government, a true democracy. The war Washington is being fought absent any direct say from U.S. citizens. The U.S. is spending BILLIONS of U.S. Taxpayer dollars in hopes of establishing a true democracy in Libya, a democracy that does not exist in the U.S..
The civil war in Libya is more traditional: guns, bombing, thousands of civilian casualties, costing U.S. Taxpayers Billions of dollars. The war in Washington is the "civilized" version of a civil war fought with rhetoric and falsifications. In Libya and in Washington, "high ground" is sought by each side. The irony is, the U.S./NATO war in Libya is ostensibly being fought so that the Libyan people will have a direct say in government, a true democracy. The war Washington is being fought absent any direct say from U.S. citizens. The U.S. is spending BILLIONS of U.S. Taxpayer dollars in hopes of establishing a true democracy in Libya, a democracy that does not exist in the U.S..
Saturday, June 25, 2011
WORLD ON A PRECIPICE - THE GREEK ECONOMIC DEBACLE
Greece has become the "poster child" for a looming problem that faces every nation with debt. The root of Greece's problem, is the root problem for all nations: interest and it's relation to value. The concept of "interest" has long plagued the economic scholars, and debate on the issue continues to this day. "Interest", the price paid for capital, adds nothing to the true value of goods and services generated by society. Interest, as an economic function, is an enabler; it enables one access to and the use capital one does not have. The common form for "interest" is the "time payment" plan most consumers and citizens are familiar with. For reasons that are more academic then practical "interest", the cost of capital, has been added to, rather then deducted from "value" resulting in artificial values that exceed real value, and higher GDP rates. Such anomalous accounting has political import, but distorts a nations true ability to meet sovereign debt obligations. One begins to realize both the scope and magnitude of the problem when the Greek circumstance is considered. The problem is a world problem that all debtor nations face, the U.S. included. Financial markets are based on a contrived house of cards; credit extensions only aggravate fundamental structural problems. Immediate national financial problems, i.e., Greece, cannot be resolved without making fundamental structural changes to real world economic beliefs and policy.
All central banks including that of China, should enter into a binding compact
mandating and limiting "cost of funds" to a range between 4% to 6% ; this range would be fixed for ten (10) years; and, thereafter fixed, subject to range adjustment, for incremental periods of ten (10) years. Cost of funds would be deducted from adjusted GDP, with credit being limited to 25% of adjusted annual, calendar year based, GDP. Participating bank and institution accounting would be based on the calendar year. Extensions of credit would only be available to corporations and entities based on the calendar year, January 1 to December 31. The word economy must be in sync before national issues like Greece can be effectively addressed. The Greek problem is solvable but not by going in current directions. The world problem of mounting sovereign debt cannot be resolved by "theory" nor by extensions of existing credit by whatever semantic label that becomes the flavor of the day. The real challenge is for the nations of the world, is to abandon traditional alliances, ideological differences and thinking when it comes to economic order. The Greek situation is a test. If it fails, all will fail, and the world will enter a period of economic chaos and decline.
All central banks including that of China, should enter into a binding compact
mandating and limiting "cost of funds" to a range between 4% to 6% ; this range would be fixed for ten (10) years; and, thereafter fixed, subject to range adjustment, for incremental periods of ten (10) years. Cost of funds would be deducted from adjusted GDP, with credit being limited to 25% of adjusted annual, calendar year based, GDP. Participating bank and institution accounting would be based on the calendar year. Extensions of credit would only be available to corporations and entities based on the calendar year, January 1 to December 31. The word economy must be in sync before national issues like Greece can be effectively addressed. The Greek problem is solvable but not by going in current directions. The world problem of mounting sovereign debt cannot be resolved by "theory" nor by extensions of existing credit by whatever semantic label that becomes the flavor of the day. The real challenge is for the nations of the world, is to abandon traditional alliances, ideological differences and thinking when it comes to economic order. The Greek situation is a test. If it fails, all will fail, and the world will enter a period of economic chaos and decline.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
MIDDLE-EAST: Turmoil, protests, change
Matters have been brewing for years: the young are educated, traveled and aware of the outside world. They have no jobs or menial jobs far beneath their education or skills. The system, i.e., governmental structure, does not provide for mobility. This volatile mixture has exploded throughout the Middle-East:
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain; it has essentially infected the entire region including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The lone exception is Israel. CNN, t.v., cell phones and the internet, allow the outside world to attest to the turmoil. The basics are simple: mass protests calling for change, and for those in power to step down. Technology has enabled mass protests to be assembled with relative ease. The problem is, there is no plug-and-play form of government available to replace existing potentates.
Egypt has managed to escape the perils of anarchy and chaos to date by the independence of it's military. Perhaps Egypt's military leaders are looking toward Turkey for direction. The Turkish military's allegiance is the Constitution and not to the, or a President, King or other potentate. Unfortunately, Turkey stands alone in it's military allegiance in the region, hence there is scant chance, except to the extent Egypt looks to Turkey as example, that the other Middle-East nations will escape the destruction and death associated with civil war. A U.S. General, now retired, once made statements to the affect that cities would be bombed back to the dark ages. The United States Civil War ( 1861-1865 ) set U.S. society and the economy back 75 years. Existing and future civil wars in the Middle-East will set things and living conditions back 75 to 100 years. Revolutionary transition is extremely costly. Iraq is a modern example: most civil structures, including power plants, water and sewer utilities, communications facilities, bridges, roadways, hospitals and the like, existing prior to 2002, have been damaged or destroyed. It will take billions and years to rebuild. Libya, Syria and other Middle-East nations in turmoil face the same prospect: billions and years to rebuild.
Israel has been facing the vacuous government dilemma for 50 years: who speaks for the Palestinian tribes and groups ? No monolithic Palestinian government has emerged; so who does Israel engage with to insure the security of it's people ? The current turmoil in the region presents the same issue. The protests and protesters have pro-offered no plug-and-play government structure to govern their respective nations or regions once the existing potentates are overthrown. Without an agreed and accepted monolithic government structure, policies, procedures and laws, anarchy and chaos rule. Anarchy and chaos are leaps backward rather then forward, as factions fight factions for control while civilian capital and social structures are being destroyed and thousands are killed in the process.
Matters, death and destruction, are made worse for the indigenous populations by outside military intervention. Outside military intervention dramatically escalates damage to the physical infrastructure of any nation or country , and the killing of civilian populations. Those in power, including the U.S., do not simply leave without a fight. There have been few rational transitions of power between disparate ideologies or leaders.; bloodshed is inevitable. The international community ( U.N. ) bares responsibility for the aggravation of conditions and turmoil in the Middle-East. Instead of having developed strategies, structures and teams to deal with leadership transitions, as was done to assist in the formation of Israel circa 1947-1950, the U.N. has chosen to use military force. This 17th century myopia is edging western society to the verge of collapse. The Middle -East was the cradle of Western civilization and it my well turn out to be the death of it.
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain; it has essentially infected the entire region including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The lone exception is Israel. CNN, t.v., cell phones and the internet, allow the outside world to attest to the turmoil. The basics are simple: mass protests calling for change, and for those in power to step down. Technology has enabled mass protests to be assembled with relative ease. The problem is, there is no plug-and-play form of government available to replace existing potentates.
Egypt has managed to escape the perils of anarchy and chaos to date by the independence of it's military. Perhaps Egypt's military leaders are looking toward Turkey for direction. The Turkish military's allegiance is the Constitution and not to the, or a President, King or other potentate. Unfortunately, Turkey stands alone in it's military allegiance in the region, hence there is scant chance, except to the extent Egypt looks to Turkey as example, that the other Middle-East nations will escape the destruction and death associated with civil war. A U.S. General, now retired, once made statements to the affect that cities would be bombed back to the dark ages. The United States Civil War ( 1861-1865 ) set U.S. society and the economy back 75 years. Existing and future civil wars in the Middle-East will set things and living conditions back 75 to 100 years. Revolutionary transition is extremely costly. Iraq is a modern example: most civil structures, including power plants, water and sewer utilities, communications facilities, bridges, roadways, hospitals and the like, existing prior to 2002, have been damaged or destroyed. It will take billions and years to rebuild. Libya, Syria and other Middle-East nations in turmoil face the same prospect: billions and years to rebuild.
Israel has been facing the vacuous government dilemma for 50 years: who speaks for the Palestinian tribes and groups ? No monolithic Palestinian government has emerged; so who does Israel engage with to insure the security of it's people ? The current turmoil in the region presents the same issue. The protests and protesters have pro-offered no plug-and-play government structure to govern their respective nations or regions once the existing potentates are overthrown. Without an agreed and accepted monolithic government structure, policies, procedures and laws, anarchy and chaos rule. Anarchy and chaos are leaps backward rather then forward, as factions fight factions for control while civilian capital and social structures are being destroyed and thousands are killed in the process.
Matters, death and destruction, are made worse for the indigenous populations by outside military intervention. Outside military intervention dramatically escalates damage to the physical infrastructure of any nation or country , and the killing of civilian populations. Those in power, including the U.S., do not simply leave without a fight. There have been few rational transitions of power between disparate ideologies or leaders.; bloodshed is inevitable. The international community ( U.N. ) bares responsibility for the aggravation of conditions and turmoil in the Middle-East. Instead of having developed strategies, structures and teams to deal with leadership transitions, as was done to assist in the formation of Israel circa 1947-1950, the U.N. has chosen to use military force. This 17th century myopia is edging western society to the verge of collapse. The Middle -East was the cradle of Western civilization and it my well turn out to be the death of it.
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