Recession, depression, stagnation; labels aside, main-street U.S.A. is in and will continue to be faced with a decline in demand for goods and services the majority of citizens can no longer afford. While academics , "professional" economists, the Fed and Presidential advisers, quibble over semantics, theories and blind hopes the U.S. economy will be long, very long to to regain its status circa 2005.
Today "bail-out", "stimulus", and "negative interest" are the buzz words. The reality the majority of Americans well know, is that the jobs that they will get in the future, will not pay what the jobs they lost paid in 2005. So what does this mean for the U.S. ? What does this mean for for the rest of the world ?
The U.S. has been exporting jobs and production to foreign, off-shore, countries for over a decade. This is common knowledge; the labor differential, NAFTA and related trade agreements have hastened the process. While CEO's have pocketed tens to hundreds of millions, U.S officials and the U.S. Congress have never addressed the "end-of-the-day" scenario. 2008-9 are the "end-of-the-day"; the end of millions of U.S. jobs, jobs at pay rates, that will not return. Slight-of-hand economics and policies will no longer mask the reality that the U.S. economic engine has burned itself out.
What does it mean ? It means that the disposable income of the U.S. worker will decline over the coming years; decline as much as 33%, or more, over the next five ( 5 ) years. This decline will be aggravated by inflation: increased costs for electric, water, sewer, garbage phone and utilities, and higher local and state taxes. Accordingly, the U.S. consumer will buy 33%+ fewer goods and services. The disposable income of U.S. consumers and high U.S. consumption rates, have been the fuel for world economies. As of late, China has been the major producer of goods consumed by the U.S.; Europe and other emerging economies have benefited proportionally. The decline of average wage earned by U.S. workers will have a major impact on other economies. While academics, economists, politicians and world leaders focus on the "financial" community, liquidity and credit, the real problem is the decline in U.S. worker wages and disposable income. Few, if any, in high places understand the bottom-line which means that the future, next five plus years, spell gloom for the U.S. and the rest of the civilized world.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Thursday, April 2, 2009
G-20 HUFF & PUFF
The G-20 meeting has accomplished little to nothing toward resolving the global financial discord. One major stumbling block is the U.S. posture and neo-Keynesian approach to resolving the U.S. recession, stimulus ( government ) spending. As the main world reserve currency, the U.S. dollars use impacts global trade and the value of all other currencies in play. The U.S. posture and U.S. resistance to the regulatory approach favored by most European and Asian nations, is the harbinger of a prolonged global recession now cascading to depression.
Had the U.S. approached the G-20 with an open minded plan, some agreement may have been possible at the March meeting. Instead the U.S. appeared armed with Obama rhetoric and good will, but no acceptable "plan" to address world concerns.
In November, 2008, as the ugly head of recession was prominent in the U.S., common sense and straight forward suggestions were posed to the U.S. congress: Cap interest rates at 12 % simple interest per annum, 6 % on 20 year home loans; eliminate "day trading", and require that stocks be held for a minimum of 13 months; restrict commodities trading to end users only; limit financial instruments to traditional stocks and bonds; repeal Pub.Law 106-554(1)(a)(5) [ Commodities Futures Modernization Act ] and re-institute Glass-Steagall [ Banking Act of 1933 ] provisions. In addition, it was suggested to the U.S. congress, that there be modifications to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, requiring among other things, that banks rates have a universal rate range of .05% and minimum reserve requirements of 20% be established.
Had the U.S. appeared and presented G-20 members with a "plan" based on components designed to stabilize financial markets, e.g., retail interest cap, central bank rate range of .05%, elimination of " day-trading" of stocks, and restriction of commodities trading to end users, there may well have been something concrete and tranquilizing emerging from the G-20, March, 2009, meeting. As it is, G-20 accomplished little except as a format for G-20 leaders to get to know President Obama. World financial markets remain in disarray, as the global recession deepens giving rise to political instability in certain G-20 participants. What a mess the U.S. Congress has gotten the world into.
Had the U.S. approached the G-20 with an open minded plan, some agreement may have been possible at the March meeting. Instead the U.S. appeared armed with Obama rhetoric and good will, but no acceptable "plan" to address world concerns.
In November, 2008, as the ugly head of recession was prominent in the U.S., common sense and straight forward suggestions were posed to the U.S. congress: Cap interest rates at 12 % simple interest per annum, 6 % on 20 year home loans; eliminate "day trading", and require that stocks be held for a minimum of 13 months; restrict commodities trading to end users only; limit financial instruments to traditional stocks and bonds; repeal Pub.Law 106-554(1)(a)(5) [ Commodities Futures Modernization Act ] and re-institute Glass-Steagall [ Banking Act of 1933 ] provisions. In addition, it was suggested to the U.S. congress, that there be modifications to the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, requiring among other things, that banks rates have a universal rate range of .05% and minimum reserve requirements of 20% be established.
Had the U.S. appeared and presented G-20 members with a "plan" based on components designed to stabilize financial markets, e.g., retail interest cap, central bank rate range of .05%, elimination of " day-trading" of stocks, and restriction of commodities trading to end users, there may well have been something concrete and tranquilizing emerging from the G-20, March, 2009, meeting. As it is, G-20 accomplished little except as a format for G-20 leaders to get to know President Obama. World financial markets remain in disarray, as the global recession deepens giving rise to political instability in certain G-20 participants. What a mess the U.S. Congress has gotten the world into.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Political Contributions = BIG AIG $$$$$$ REWARDS
Obama was voted in to "change" Washington. The only change appears to be the party, now Democrats, that get "pay" to "play". AIG "invested" $100,000.+ in Senator Dodd, Senate Banking Chair, and $100,000.+ in Obama, now President. What AIG bought for these contributions was the AIG "loophole" Senator Dodd inserted in the massive, 1100+ page, American Recovery/Stimulus Act, Pub. Law 111-5, a loophole that has cost U.S. taxpayers $165,000,000. million in AIG bonuses to date and likely much more in the future. What a return for the AIG $200,000.00 investment !!, $165 million in less then 1 year !!! Political investments continue to pay off BIG, VERY BIG, by comparison to the paltry return hard working, main-street, Americans can get on bank CD's. The thing that has changed in Washington is BIGGER BONUSES for those who make significant campaign contributions. This is just the start, there are lots of "loopholes" in the 1100+ pages of Pub.Law 111-5, that will cost taxpayers many, many more billions and bankrupt future generations of citizens.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
THE TEMPORARY WORKER
The U.S. is writing a new chapter in the book of employment. The global financial crisis created by unregulated private U.S. financial sector interests is raising havoc not only with the lifestyles of hundreds of millions around the world, but on what has been traditionally thought of as employment. Gone forever are the days when a U.S. worker could expect to be employed by a private company for ten (10), fifteen (15) years or longer. Retirement from a single employer ( except for government jobs ) has become virtually extinct. The U.S. and parts of the world that follow the U.S. model are now embarking on the path of the " TEMPORARY WORKER ".
The " temporary worker " bodes well for U.S. companies and foreign firms that follow U.S. models, in that "retirement " no longer presents a "cost" to the company. Federal, State and Local Governments will survive as the refuge for employee "retirement". This shift will be reflected in the increasing "cost" of government that translates directly into increased taxes on the population in general.
Taxes and the increased "cost" of government reduce, and do not contribute to real GDP. Employment by governmental entities, is not productive nor market employment, because taxes are not optional. Market forces, and choice, play no part in government employment. And, unlike other enlightened countries, the U.S. has an open border, open employment policy: if you get to the U.S., you can be employed. This new era, ushered in by the current recession (depression) provides the foundation for the new "temporary worker" status for all U.S. private sector workers. It includes employment created by American Recovery Act deficit spending as the employment by private firms contracted for "stimulus" programs only lasts as long as Washington continues to dole out money. Such employment is "temporary" and will not create a climate for real jobs in the private sector. All one has to do is look at the data complied by good old "Uncle Sam" over the past 10 years. The fastest growing sector in the U.S. is government related jobs, i.e., the U.S. has become the land of BIG GOVERNMENT.
The new "temporary worker" will have little job security, and therefore, will live, as many U.S. workers now do, on a pay-check-to-pay check basis. Banking and credit institutions will have to adjust lending practices accordingly. The idea if home ownership and a 20 or 30 year mortgage predicated on a steady income stream, will likely fall by the way side except for the wealthiest 1% to 2% of the population. In short, the U.S. will retreat to lifestyles and expectations reminiscent of 1910. Although this is not the aim of the Obama administration and U.S. congress, will become the reality as a consequent of their misguided actions. The surviving private sector will continue to struggle to underwrite the increasing cost of Big Government, and will fill diminished ranks of workers from the increased pool of "temporary workers" though-out the world decreasing the hourly value and wage of every worker, and significantly reducing the employment of U.S. citizens.
Don't tear up, nostalgia aside, HELLO ....TEMPORARY WORKERS !
The " temporary worker " bodes well for U.S. companies and foreign firms that follow U.S. models, in that "retirement " no longer presents a "cost" to the company. Federal, State and Local Governments will survive as the refuge for employee "retirement". This shift will be reflected in the increasing "cost" of government that translates directly into increased taxes on the population in general.
Taxes and the increased "cost" of government reduce, and do not contribute to real GDP. Employment by governmental entities, is not productive nor market employment, because taxes are not optional. Market forces, and choice, play no part in government employment. And, unlike other enlightened countries, the U.S. has an open border, open employment policy: if you get to the U.S., you can be employed. This new era, ushered in by the current recession (depression) provides the foundation for the new "temporary worker" status for all U.S. private sector workers. It includes employment created by American Recovery Act deficit spending as the employment by private firms contracted for "stimulus" programs only lasts as long as Washington continues to dole out money. Such employment is "temporary" and will not create a climate for real jobs in the private sector. All one has to do is look at the data complied by good old "Uncle Sam" over the past 10 years. The fastest growing sector in the U.S. is government related jobs, i.e., the U.S. has become the land of BIG GOVERNMENT.
The new "temporary worker" will have little job security, and therefore, will live, as many U.S. workers now do, on a pay-check-to-pay check basis. Banking and credit institutions will have to adjust lending practices accordingly. The idea if home ownership and a 20 or 30 year mortgage predicated on a steady income stream, will likely fall by the way side except for the wealthiest 1% to 2% of the population. In short, the U.S. will retreat to lifestyles and expectations reminiscent of 1910. Although this is not the aim of the Obama administration and U.S. congress, will become the reality as a consequent of their misguided actions. The surviving private sector will continue to struggle to underwrite the increasing cost of Big Government, and will fill diminished ranks of workers from the increased pool of "temporary workers" though-out the world decreasing the hourly value and wage of every worker, and significantly reducing the employment of U.S. citizens.
Don't tear up, nostalgia aside, HELLO ....TEMPORARY WORKERS !
Monday, March 9, 2009
TO BIG TO FAIL
Washington has overlooked and continues to ignore the part the failure to enforce U.S. Anti-Trust laws [ 15 U.S.C. 1 et.seq. ] has played in the economic collapse ( current recession/depression ) of the U.S. and the collateral damage it has caused to the world community. As far back as 1890 [ Sherman Act ] it was recognized that a company or corporation could grow to a point of suffocating free markets. Since the 1960's Washington has been a rudderless ship when it comes to preventing acquisitions and mergers that tend to create monopolies that stifle free markets; and, this failure has lead to the creation of the " TO BIG TO FAIL " now U.S. Government/Taxpayer bail out of the likes of AIG, Wall-Street, Big Banks and G.M. U.S. politics and ideological differences prevented the U.S. from vigorously enforcing Anti-Trust laws long on the books. Main-street U.S.A. and the average Joe & Jane of other nations have paid the price of U.S. Government lethargy.
Had Washington enforced anti-trust laws long on the books [ Sherman Act 1890;Clayton Act 1914 ] AIG, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, CityBank etc. would never have grown to the size that would imperil the U.S. "TO BIG TO FAIL" taxpayer bail-out would never have come into play. Fingers continue to point to the U.S. housing bubble, and sub-prime mortgage collapse as the cause of the current economic crisis. These were indeed factors and the probable trigger for the current crisis. However, had the U.S. anti-trust laws been vigorously enforced mega-banks (Bank of America ) and mega insurance and financial institutions (AIG, Goldman Sachs, etc. ) would never have achieved the size and dominance to significantly impact the U.S. and world economies. Size does matter, bigger is not better; by containing the size of institutions, not only is competition enhanced, but the failure of a single institution will not cause market collapse.
There is entirely too much outside political influence in Washington ( lobbyists, PAC's, etc. ) for the U.S. to function except at a remedial level, far below what is required to effectively be a leader in today's world.
Had Washington enforced anti-trust laws long on the books [ Sherman Act 1890;Clayton Act 1914 ] AIG, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, CityBank etc. would never have grown to the size that would imperil the U.S. "TO BIG TO FAIL" taxpayer bail-out would never have come into play. Fingers continue to point to the U.S. housing bubble, and sub-prime mortgage collapse as the cause of the current economic crisis. These were indeed factors and the probable trigger for the current crisis. However, had the U.S. anti-trust laws been vigorously enforced mega-banks (Bank of America ) and mega insurance and financial institutions (AIG, Goldman Sachs, etc. ) would never have achieved the size and dominance to significantly impact the U.S. and world economies. Size does matter, bigger is not better; by containing the size of institutions, not only is competition enhanced, but the failure of a single institution will not cause market collapse.
There is entirely too much outside political influence in Washington ( lobbyists, PAC's, etc. ) for the U.S. to function except at a remedial level, far below what is required to effectively be a leader in today's world.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
United States the Pied Piper of Financial Doom
by http://socrates911.blogspot.com
The world is aware that the United States suffered a depression in the 1930's which resulted in a number of Congressional regulatory acts [ Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 included ], complimenting existing Anti-Trust laws, and designed to prevent a future financial collapse in the U.S.A.
Full implementation of these regulatory acts occurred after WWII, and provided a basis of stability for U.S. banks and financial institutions. As banks, financial institutions and corporations gained political influence over Washington, the regulators became, under political pressure from both Democrats and Republicans, lax in the enforcement of these 1890-1936 laws. Beginning with the Reagan administration, there was increased pressure to " deregulate ". Laws that allowed the U.S. to become the Pied Piper of the world, financial world in particular, were increasingly modified or repealed during the ensuing years 1960-2005. The U.S. enjoyed economic prosperity previously unknown in the world, enticing foreign governments, banks, financial institutions and investors to " buy in " and finance the "AMERICAN DREAM " by purchasing financial contrivances dreamed-up by Wall Street, and continuing to buy U.S. Government, Treasury issues.
The lesson learned, follow the U.S. Pied Piper and you will be doomed.
Unless and until the U.S. re-enacts bank and financial regulatory legislation created in the 1930's and strictly enforces the Sherman and Clayton Anti-Trust Acts preventing mergers, the U.S., regardless of any "stimulus" Washington conjures up, will not be able to pull itself out of the depression it now faces. The rest of the world and particularly the remaining members of the G8 ( minus the U.S. = G7 ) need to develop compacts independent of the U.S. The U.S. is no longer the leader and has little to offer other nations except to buy U.S. debt so that the U.S. can purse its narcissistic interests and military objectives.
What the U.S. needs to do, but does not have the Congressional will to do, is to “man-up” to the fact that it alone has lead fellow G8 nations and other less fortunate nations, to the brink of financial collapse. The U.S. needs to co-ordinate its Anti-Trust laws, bank, financial and insurance regulations and regulatory agencies with those of other G8 nations. Agree on central bank borrowing rates that are within 1/2 % of rates established by other G8 Central banks, agree on a universal retail interest cap at 12% simple interest, and restrict the sale, assignment, transfer of stock and financial instruments, including commodity contracts, requiring, among other things, that stocks, bonds, warrants and the like must be held for a period of not less then 13 months. One of the main, but little discussed components, of the global financial mess the U.S. has created, was and is market volatility. Mechanisms to stabilize global financial markets will be necessary before there can be any true recovery. The U.S. “stimulus” is inward looking, and makes no provision for new and required stability and regulatory mechanisms; the caveat to the rest of the G8 club, and other nations, is to look else ware for leadership.
The world is aware that the United States suffered a depression in the 1930's which resulted in a number of Congressional regulatory acts [ Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 included ], complimenting existing Anti-Trust laws, and designed to prevent a future financial collapse in the U.S.A.
Full implementation of these regulatory acts occurred after WWII, and provided a basis of stability for U.S. banks and financial institutions. As banks, financial institutions and corporations gained political influence over Washington, the regulators became, under political pressure from both Democrats and Republicans, lax in the enforcement of these 1890-1936 laws. Beginning with the Reagan administration, there was increased pressure to " deregulate ". Laws that allowed the U.S. to become the Pied Piper of the world, financial world in particular, were increasingly modified or repealed during the ensuing years 1960-2005. The U.S. enjoyed economic prosperity previously unknown in the world, enticing foreign governments, banks, financial institutions and investors to " buy in " and finance the "AMERICAN DREAM " by purchasing financial contrivances dreamed-up by Wall Street, and continuing to buy U.S. Government, Treasury issues.
The lesson learned, follow the U.S. Pied Piper and you will be doomed.
Unless and until the U.S. re-enacts bank and financial regulatory legislation created in the 1930's and strictly enforces the Sherman and Clayton Anti-Trust Acts preventing mergers, the U.S., regardless of any "stimulus" Washington conjures up, will not be able to pull itself out of the depression it now faces. The rest of the world and particularly the remaining members of the G8 ( minus the U.S. = G7 ) need to develop compacts independent of the U.S. The U.S. is no longer the leader and has little to offer other nations except to buy U.S. debt so that the U.S. can purse its narcissistic interests and military objectives.
What the U.S. needs to do, but does not have the Congressional will to do, is to “man-up” to the fact that it alone has lead fellow G8 nations and other less fortunate nations, to the brink of financial collapse. The U.S. needs to co-ordinate its Anti-Trust laws, bank, financial and insurance regulations and regulatory agencies with those of other G8 nations. Agree on central bank borrowing rates that are within 1/2 % of rates established by other G8 Central banks, agree on a universal retail interest cap at 12% simple interest, and restrict the sale, assignment, transfer of stock and financial instruments, including commodity contracts, requiring, among other things, that stocks, bonds, warrants and the like must be held for a period of not less then 13 months. One of the main, but little discussed components, of the global financial mess the U.S. has created, was and is market volatility. Mechanisms to stabilize global financial markets will be necessary before there can be any true recovery. The U.S. “stimulus” is inward looking, and makes no provision for new and required stability and regulatory mechanisms; the caveat to the rest of the G8 club, and other nations, is to look else ware for leadership.
Monday, February 9, 2009
PERSPECTIVE IS LACKING IN THE OBAMA "STIMULUS"
President Obama does not need to tell main-street U.S.A. that the U.S. is experiencing HARD TIMES and that their immediate future is bleak. The average U.S. citizen is living the nightmare. Everyone understands that something needs to be done; accordingly, citizens look to Washington for answers. But lets look the data that President Obama is presenting: an $800 billion, now $900 billion, and, with interest carry, over $1.3 to $1.6 trillion "stimulus" on top of the $700 billion passed TARP program of 2008, added to the $126 billion 2008, AIG bail-out.
Some perspective is needed: it took George Bush 8 years to run up the U.S. National debt to $1.2 trillion dollars. President Obama has been in office for 21 days and proposes that we MORE THEN DOUBLE the national debt. So, rhetoric aside, what does this mean. It means, among other things, that the U.S. dollar, your and my savings, Social Security and other benefits have been devalued, i.e., it will take more dollars to buy the same food, fuel, medical and health services then it did in 2008.
President Obama, and Congress will not pin-point the number of private sector jobs that will actually be created by DOUBLING the national debt. Rhetoric should not be confused with actual private sector job creation. Government jobs, because they are directly taxpayer funded, actually add to the national debt, and do not contribute to the economic growth of the U.S. We are headed to 15% nationwide unemployment; Obama pontificates that the "stimulus" will create 4 million jobs. If we take a slim $800 billion as the proposed "stimulus" package base figure, and assuming that 4 million jobs will be created, that means that it will take $200,000.00 for each job created. Wouldn't be much simpler to pay each unemployed head of household $50,000.00 to pay off their debts and bills ? That would amount a treasury expenditure of a mere $ 200 billion and it actually help troubled homeowners, plus save the taxpayers over $600 billion. Another thought, would be to suspend the payment of Federal Income taxes for everyone making under $250,000.00 a year, for one (1) year, a tax holiday ? No treasury expenditure required; yet talk about "stimulus ".
We all know Washington is not composed of the best, brightest or even those with common sense. That is why the Obama/Pelosi "stimulus" consists of over 650 pages, of loop holes, so persons and business other then the average main-street U.S. citizen (we are the one's suffering) and those with political influence can get the "big" pay-off. The "stimulus" bill proposed by the Obama/Pelosi team is nothing more then a ruse, to direct taxpayer funds to privileged persons, corporations, States and Cities with the right political connections, just as the TARP bail-out of the Bush administration was designed to benefit those on Wall-Street and in the banking community who pushed the U.S. economy off-the-cliff. In short, it is Washington doing business as usual.
Some perspective is needed: it took George Bush 8 years to run up the U.S. National debt to $1.2 trillion dollars. President Obama has been in office for 21 days and proposes that we MORE THEN DOUBLE the national debt. So, rhetoric aside, what does this mean. It means, among other things, that the U.S. dollar, your and my savings, Social Security and other benefits have been devalued, i.e., it will take more dollars to buy the same food, fuel, medical and health services then it did in 2008.
President Obama, and Congress will not pin-point the number of private sector jobs that will actually be created by DOUBLING the national debt. Rhetoric should not be confused with actual private sector job creation. Government jobs, because they are directly taxpayer funded, actually add to the national debt, and do not contribute to the economic growth of the U.S. We are headed to 15% nationwide unemployment; Obama pontificates that the "stimulus" will create 4 million jobs. If we take a slim $800 billion as the proposed "stimulus" package base figure, and assuming that 4 million jobs will be created, that means that it will take $200,000.00 for each job created. Wouldn't be much simpler to pay each unemployed head of household $50,000.00 to pay off their debts and bills ? That would amount a treasury expenditure of a mere $ 200 billion and it actually help troubled homeowners, plus save the taxpayers over $600 billion. Another thought, would be to suspend the payment of Federal Income taxes for everyone making under $250,000.00 a year, for one (1) year, a tax holiday ? No treasury expenditure required; yet talk about "stimulus ".
We all know Washington is not composed of the best, brightest or even those with common sense. That is why the Obama/Pelosi "stimulus" consists of over 650 pages, of loop holes, so persons and business other then the average main-street U.S. citizen (we are the one's suffering) and those with political influence can get the "big" pay-off. The "stimulus" bill proposed by the Obama/Pelosi team is nothing more then a ruse, to direct taxpayer funds to privileged persons, corporations, States and Cities with the right political connections, just as the TARP bail-out of the Bush administration was designed to benefit those on Wall-Street and in the banking community who pushed the U.S. economy off-the-cliff. In short, it is Washington doing business as usual.
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