Thursday, August 4, 2011

PHANTOM GDP

All eyes were on the U.S. , while the U.S. House, Senate and President Obama
jockeyed for position on raising the U.S. Debt Ceiling. The Dollars position, as the principal world trading currency, was at stake while those in Washington [D.C.], and in academic circles, squabbled over they way, means and impact of raising he debt ceiling. Drama aside, it was a forgone conclusion that a "deal" would be done and the
debt ceiling would be increased to accommodate U.S. deficit spending.

The side-bar to Washington's theatrics, economic growth [ measured in GDP ], was hinted at in the House passed [H.B. #2560] Cut, Cap and Balance bill, but never brought to the floor by Senator Harry Reid, for Senate vote. Gross Domestic Product, GDP,is the benchmark measure used internationally to snapshot a nations economic growth. The U.S. snapshots GDP on a quarterly, basis; and, during the quarter, when the debt ceiling drama was playing in Washington, the U.S. GDP had stalled at around 1%. Without growth, government revenue, remains stagnant, absent an increase in taxes, often masked as fees, to offset government spending.

The way GDP has traditionally been calculated [ all goods and services ] essentially is a miss-measure that overstates real economic growth by a factor equal to the amount of government costs and services included in the GDP computation. Since the miss-measure GDP computation has universal appeal, true economic growth remains phantom to the delight of Wall Street, London and world financial markets. The GDP miss-measure is a harbinger for future financial melt-downs.

Among the minority of others, China, appears recognize the GDP anomaly, by its recent downgrade of U.S. debt obligations. Others will likely realize the U.S. has been and will continue, for the foreseeable future, to experience negative GDP. This has ominous consequences for todays inter-connected world, and is one factor in the flight to gold and other precious metals. Absent an accurate measure of a nations economic growth, and a stable benchmark currency, the surplus capital necessary for economic growth, will be locked in gold and precious metals, and world economies will unravel.

This U.S. and U.S. dollar, can no longer serve as a benchmark currency. The failure of the U.S. to balance its budget, per the U.S. Balanced Budget Act of 1985, yes 1985, was the first signal to the world that new measures and new benchmarks would be necessary if sustainable, shared, economic growth were to be achieved on a world basis. The latest U.S. budget antics [yr. 2011, 26 years later ] are a signal that the U.S. is in a downward economic spiral and can no longer be viewed as a stabilizing force, and the U.S. dollar, a reliable currency.

The U.S., as a system of governance, has displayed it's inherent flaws; arrogance, fashion, feelings, and ego, trump reason. New measures and a new type of benchmark currency will be needed before financial stability can be achieved on a world basis; otherwise,one country will fail, followed by the next, and by the next; signs of which are appearing in Europe and with the Euro.

Friday, July 29, 2011

THE IRONY OF THE U.S. SPENDING BILLIONS FOR DEMOCRACY IN LIBYA

The U.S., is currently engaged in two wars of remarkable similarity. One in Washington, D.C., Senate Democrats vs. House Republicans over the debt limit, and one in Libya, under the guise of NATO.

The civil war in Libya is more traditional: guns, bombing, thousands of civilian casualties, costing U.S. Taxpayers Billions of dollars. The war in Washington is the "civilized" version of a civil war fought with rhetoric and falsifications. In Libya and in Washington, "high ground" is sought by each side. The irony is, the U.S./NATO war in Libya is ostensibly being fought so that the Libyan people will have a direct say in government, a true democracy. The war Washington is being fought absent any direct say from U.S. citizens. The U.S. is spending BILLIONS of U.S. Taxpayer dollars in hopes of establishing a true democracy in Libya, a democracy that does not exist in the U.S..

Saturday, June 25, 2011

WORLD ON A PRECIPICE - THE GREEK ECONOMIC DEBACLE

Greece has become the "poster child" for a looming problem that faces every nation with debt. The root of Greece's problem, is the root problem for all nations: interest and it's relation to value. The concept of "interest" has long plagued the economic scholars, and debate on the issue continues to this day. "Interest", the price paid for capital, adds nothing to the true value of goods and services generated by society. Interest, as an economic function, is an enabler; it enables one access to and the use capital one does not have. The common form for "interest" is the "time payment" plan most consumers and citizens are familiar with. For reasons that are more academic then practical "interest", the cost of capital, has been added to, rather then deducted from "value" resulting in artificial values that exceed real value, and higher GDP rates. Such anomalous accounting has political import, but distorts a nations true ability to meet sovereign debt obligations. One begins to realize both the scope and magnitude of the problem when the Greek circumstance is considered. The problem is a world problem that all debtor nations face, the U.S. included. Financial markets are based on a contrived house of cards; credit extensions only aggravate fundamental structural problems. Immediate national financial problems, i.e., Greece, cannot be resolved without making fundamental structural changes to real world economic beliefs and policy.

All central banks including that of China, should enter into a binding compact
mandating and limiting "cost of funds" to a range between 4% to 6% ; this range would be fixed for ten (10) years; and, thereafter fixed, subject to range adjustment, for incremental periods of ten (10) years. Cost of funds would be deducted from adjusted GDP, with credit being limited to 25% of adjusted annual, calendar year based, GDP. Participating bank and institution accounting would be based on the calendar year. Extensions of credit would only be available to corporations and entities based on the calendar year, January 1 to December 31. The word economy must be in sync before national issues like Greece can be effectively addressed. The Greek problem is solvable but not by going in current directions. The world problem of mounting sovereign debt cannot be resolved by "theory" nor by extensions of existing credit by whatever semantic label that becomes the flavor of the day. The real challenge is for the nations of the world, is to abandon traditional alliances, ideological differences and thinking when it comes to economic order. The Greek situation is a test. If it fails, all will fail, and the world will enter a period of economic chaos and decline.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

MIDDLE-EAST: Turmoil, protests, change

Matters have been brewing for years: the young are educated, traveled and aware of the outside world. They have no jobs or menial jobs far beneath their education or skills. The system, i.e., governmental structure, does not provide for mobility. This volatile mixture has exploded throughout the Middle-East:
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain; it has essentially infected the entire region including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The lone exception is Israel. CNN, t.v., cell phones and the internet, allow the outside world to attest to the turmoil. The basics are simple: mass protests calling for change, and for those in power to step down. Technology has enabled mass protests to be assembled with relative ease. The problem is, there is no plug-and-play form of government available to replace existing potentates.

Egypt has managed to escape the perils of anarchy and chaos to date by the independence of it's military. Perhaps Egypt's military leaders are looking toward Turkey for direction. The Turkish military's allegiance is the Constitution and not to the, or a President, King or other potentate. Unfortunately, Turkey stands alone in it's military allegiance in the region, hence there is scant chance, except to the extent Egypt looks to Turkey as example, that the other Middle-East nations will escape the destruction and death associated with civil war. A U.S. General, now retired, once made statements to the affect that cities would be bombed back to the dark ages. The United States Civil War ( 1861-1865 ) set U.S. society and the economy back 75 years. Existing and future civil wars in the Middle-East will set things and living conditions back 75 to 100 years. Revolutionary transition is extremely costly. Iraq is a modern example: most civil structures, including power plants, water and sewer utilities, communications facilities, bridges, roadways, hospitals and the like, existing prior to 2002, have been damaged or destroyed. It will take billions and years to rebuild. Libya, Syria and other Middle-East nations in turmoil face the same prospect: billions and years to rebuild.

Israel has been facing the vacuous government dilemma for 50 years: who speaks for the Palestinian tribes and groups ? No monolithic Palestinian government has emerged; so who does Israel engage with to insure the security of it's people ? The current turmoil in the region presents the same issue. The protests and protesters have pro-offered no plug-and-play government structure to govern their respective nations or regions once the existing potentates are overthrown. Without an agreed and accepted monolithic government structure, policies, procedures and laws, anarchy and chaos rule. Anarchy and chaos are leaps backward rather then forward, as factions fight factions for control while civilian capital and social structures are being destroyed and thousands are killed in the process.

Matters, death and destruction, are made worse for the indigenous populations by outside military intervention. Outside military intervention dramatically escalates damage to the physical infrastructure of any nation or country , and the killing of civilian populations. Those in power, including the U.S., do not simply leave without a fight. There have been few rational transitions of power between disparate ideologies or leaders.; bloodshed is inevitable. The international community ( U.N. ) bares responsibility for the aggravation of conditions and turmoil in the Middle-East. Instead of having developed strategies, structures and teams to deal with leadership transitions, as was done to assist in the formation of Israel circa 1947-1950, the U.N. has chosen to use military force. This 17th century myopia is edging western society to the verge of collapse. The Middle -East was the cradle of Western civilization and it my well turn out to be the death of it.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Obama Care – A Paradigm for Revision

There is something fundamentally wrong when Congress passes a Bill, piece of legislation, that approaches or exceeds 3000 pages in length. No Congressmen, albeit Representative or Senator, would be willing to swear under oath and penalty of perjury, that he or she read each and every page, paragraph, sentence and word of such a Bill, yet Obama Care [ Affordable Health Care Act ]was just such a Bill. Obama Care is and was nothing short of a political power play complete with “earmarks” [ special strokes for a select few special interests ] that had and have little to do with health care.

Health care is a concern of very citizen. There are reasonable and rational ways of addressing the issue that are compatible with the expectations of main street-USA and not disruptive to the existing systems of health care delivery. Obama Care is neither; and, if ever fully implemented, Obama Care will destroy the existing standards of heath care now available in the U.S., add trillions in costs to the national debt, and destroy the quality care now available in the U.S.. Obama Care will result in increased medical care costs for middle-class citizens and an increase in individual income taxes for the middle-class. Rhetoric aside, Obama Cares principle objective was to provide free health care to those in the U.S., including non-citizens, who are below the Federal poverty line; in short, welfare legislation.

U.S. citizens are beginning to wake up to the reality that their elected Representatives and Senators don't actually write the Bills and legislation they vote on. Legislation, including Obama Care, is drafted and written by unelected, and invisible persons, many who are not government employee's. The more pages in a Bill the more cooks, or crooks, bake the cake that Congress and Presidents, foist on the U.S. population. Obama Care is not the answer to providing affordable health care and presents a paradigm for revision. Hopefully, some form of sanity will be restored by the 112th Congress, and serious dialog addressing the particulars of health care will begin.

Pointing a gun to the head of every U.S. citizen and forcing them to buy health insurance, is not the American way. Dictatorship is not acceptable to main-street. The carrot, not the stick, is the best approach. Individual and Company tax incentives are the better way. Let's be honest, individual taxpayers are going to pay for health care, be it Obama Care or an alternative. Obama Care means the burgeoning HHS bureaucracy in Washington D.C./Virginia, will eat up over 85% of Health Care dollars in administrative costs, giving the actual Health Care provider $0.15 cents on the dollar for individual health care. $0.85 cents of every dollar will go to pay the salaries, benefits and retirements of government HHS employees. Big government flourishes on inefficiency, but that gives the U.S. taxpayer, little bang for every buck. In addition to a “standard deduction” on Federal taxes, individual taxpayers should be allowed to establish, fully deductible, “personal health accounts” of up to 8% , or $12,000.00 per year, of adjusted gross income. Employers should be allowed to contribute to “personal health accounts”. The direct payment from PHA's for private health care insurance, HMOs', doctors, hospital and prescription drugs, would cut out the HHS middleman. This would be one approach to the health care dilemma that would preserve individual choice and avoid unnecessary bureaucratic administrative costs.

Congress and the President must abandon the “...pie in the sky...” health care for the world approach that is the centerpiece of Obama Care. Popular on the hill or not, Congress and the President must face economic reality. First and foremost, we must take care of our own, that means U.S. CITIZENS. Laws providing that emergency room care for anyone and everyone must be repealed. U.S. institutions providing “..free..” care to non-citizens, should be cut off and precluded from receiving Federal and/or State reimbursement funds. Obama Care provides for health care to non-citizens under the code word “resident”. “Resident” is the lawyer' s semantic slight-of- hand so that 30 million undocumented/illegal aliens and their of spring are provided health care at U.S. citizens and taxpayer expense. This inclusion in the current Obama Care legislation is one of the reasons why Obama Care is not economically sustainable and one of the many reasons why it should be repealed and/or replaced.

The Obama Administration has failed to recognize the unique and special needs of our military personnel. Currently, under Obama Care, the administration is in the process of integrating TriCare, a medical and health care program designed to address the special, unique and circumstantial needs of the U.S. military and retirees [ administered by the Department of Defense] into Obama Care. This callous disregard the unique service related needs of U.S. military personnel should not be allowed to go forward. Under the Obama Care law, wounded and maimed soldiers, would be treated no differently then a “ resident ”, i.e., undocumented/illegal alien. The fact is, that many, perhaps the majority, of those in Congress, and our current President, have never served in the U.S. military. Except for pretty words and speeches, most politicians think of U.S. military personnel as expendable, cannon fodder, who are not entitled to special consideration for their service. Congresses attitude to U.S. military personnel, retirees and veterans must change. What should change is VA health care; veterans health care should be integrated into TriCare and TriCare should stand alone as the health care provider for military personnel, military retirees, and military veterans.

Congress needs to recognize the significance and value of actuarial data. This is particularly true when it comes to pre-existing health issues. It is irresponsible, to provide coverage to virtually every “resident” for pre-existing conditions. The U.S. has virtually eradicated many diseases and conditions that remain prevalent in other countries; polio is one example. Is it fair or prudent for U.S. taxpayers to pay for imported diseases and conditions requiring hundreds of thousand of dollars a year to treat one individual ? Citizens, except for military personnel who should remain covered by TriCare, who have continuously resided within the U.S. for seven (7) consecutive years should be entitled to coverage regardless of pre-existing conditions, but subject to a per year dollar limitation on coverage. A sound and sustainable actuarial health care program will have yearly dollar caps, otherwise only a very select few individuals will eat the pie that could otherwise feed thousands. Congress needs to get real, U.S. CITIZENS ONLY.

Existing laws preventing individuals from the option to obtain prescription drugs from outside the U.S. , and laws preventing health care providers, employers and unions from forming drug purchasing collectives, need and should be repealed. Laws preventing companies, unions and other groups from forming collectives to bargain for health care services also need to be repealed. Congress has gifted the drug companies with a monopoly for furnishing prescription medications in the U.S. This pay-for-play is one of the primary reasons why health care costs in the U.S. have skyrocketed. The blame for high prescription drug costs should be placed where it is due, on Congress and the President. Obama Care is one of the worst offenders of pay-for-play when it comes to paying off drug companies. The drug companies profit handsomely from Obama Care.

One of the more difficult matters for Congress to face, is the reality of mortality. On average, the greatest health care expenditures are made during the last three months of a persons life. Spending money is not going to stop the inevitable. Here again, any sound actuarial health care program should address dollar limitations/caps on end of life health care services. Dying with dignity, should not be a dirty word in political circles, nor should criminal penalties exist for those who assist the terminally ill. Death is a fact of life. Politicians and Judges are not Gods.

The concerns outlined above highlight a few of the thousands of flaws contained in Obama Care. Thousands of flaws intentionally included to preclude individual discussion on a point-by-point basis. Obama Care is flawed beyond repair and unless repealed will reduce health care in the U.S. to that available in Third World countries. Reasonable, practical, and beneficial alternatives to Obama Care are available. The real question is: do Congress and the President have the integrity and political will to admit that there are viable alternatives to Obama Care; alternatives that would provide true improvements to the U.S. health care system and the delivery of quality and affordable care to U.S. citizens. The 112th Congress and President need to get to work and clean up the Obama Care mess.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

ARIZONA REPRESENTATIVE SHOT - ISSUES OVERLOOKED

The media has jumped all over this tragic event, and, by innuendo suggest censorship is needed. Local power brokers, and many in Congress are hinting that censorship may be an answer. There used to be old, long forgotten, saying :

“ Sticks and stones will break my bones, but names will never hurt me.”

Sometime during the 1970's the Judiciary and Courts, jumped in and started giving relief to those claiming they were injured by “ names ”; thus changing the landscape of the U.S. forever by a back door compromise of the 1st Amendment. Vitriol ( name calling ) has been part of the U.S. landscape dating back to the days before the Declaration of Independence. Whether here in the U.S. or in other parts of the world, one unintended consequence has been bloodshed to one degree or another. Many governments suppress vitriol by force often resulting in the killing of many countrymen with opposing views. The founders of the U.S. were well aware of the consequences of adopting the 1st Amendment,but believed it a necessary price to pay for open government. Hopefully, today’s lesser minds in Congress and the Courts, will heed the wisdom of the founders of this nation, and not allow this isolated event to cloud their judgments.

There are second notes to the Arizona circumstance that the media and politicians have overlooked: the U.S. is not a democracy, it is a republic, where citizens have no direct say in the Federal government. In spite of the rhetoric by media, pundits, universities, politicians, including President's, main street U.S.A. and citizens have no U.S. Constitutional right of INITIATIVE, so are cut out of any direct way of enacting laws for their governance. Tough economic times, magnify this flaw in the U.S. Constitution, that is otherwise highlighted by the disconnect between Washington, D.C./Congress, and the people.

The media have also overlooked it's conduct in ascribing major national significance to what otherwise is a local matter. For the past 65 years the Federal Government of the U.S. has maintained a policy of killing the messenger. WWII: U.S. and Japan, President Truman, enamored with Winston Churchill’s concept of “ unconditional surrender ”, orders the atom bomb to be dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing well over one-hundred thousand Japanese civilians. The U.S. has been at the forefront of first demonizing leaders and nations with opposing views, then classifying them as “ enemy ”, then attacking and killing: Iraq, Afghanistan, and the U.S. is working it's way to engage Iran and North Korea. Remember the “ trickle down” theory; it's application to economics is misplaced; does one even dare to suggest the Government's penchant for killing, just may have “ trickle down ” ramifications when it comes to the general public ?

The media, politicians and powers that be, need to take off the rose colored glasses, and take a good look in a mirror. Decades ago, Erich Fromm penned a book: “ The Sane Society ”. In society, the actions of individuals, reflect the inflictions of the whole.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

U.S. DEFICIT REDUCTION – START WITH THE OBVIOUS

President Obama, and the leaders in Congress on both sides of the isle, recognize that the U.S. is in a BAD place. The U.S., like many individuals, has spent far beyond it's ability pay. Stripped of fancy rhetoric, the U.S. is BROKE. There are many obvious steps that can be taken to reduce U.S. debt; the real question is, does Congress have the will to confront the reality the USA is broke, and do something about it. Past Congresses and Administrations stuck there heads in the sand, raised the national debt limit, and have keep spending as if there were no tomorrow. The 112th Congress can no longer pass the buck by raising the national debt limit, now set at $14.3 TRILLION dollars.

The President as well as Congress have equal responsibilities to cut spending and reduce the debt. The Federal government is the largest employer in the U.S., if not the world. The President should require that ALL Federal employees who are eligible to retire, be required to retire NOW, or else loose all government benefits. This step, requiring all eligible Federal employees to retire now, would reduce the government workforce by 12% ( savings of roughly $37 billion ) and save the government billions in future costs.

Next on the President's list should be to close all military facilities the U.S. maintains in some 150 foreign countries. The U.S. Navy and Air Force are fully capable of deploying needed forces without shore based facilities. And remember, the most effective fighting tool today, is the predator drone, controlled from Nellis AFB, Nevada. This would yield a savings in the neighborhood of $220 billion, and save billions in future costs. Vacating Iraq and Afghanistan would save another $25+ billion in annual costs.

Undocumented and illegal immigrants cost the Federal government [ vis-a-vis reimbursed benefits to States ] around $30 billion a year. By eliminating all benefits to undocumented and illegal immigrants and their offspring, including health care, schooling, and welfare, this would save the Federal and State governments, collectively, another $40+ billion a year.

Foreign aid: it is absurd for the U.S. to borrow money, to give to foreign governments whose leaders pocket it, build private mansions in safe haven counties, and leave the U.S. holding an empty bag. You don't hear much about U.S. Foreign aide except for the occasional leak. The U.S. Government intentionally obfuscates foreign aid accounting and expenditures so both Congress and the U.S. Public have no concrete idea of how many taxpayers dollars are involved, but estimates range from $22 billion to $40 billion; lets go with $25 billion, which is likely an underestimate.

Then there are the “territories”: Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, Am. Samoa and the Northern Marianas. These tiny islands are subsidized by the U.S. Taxpayer to the tune of $10 billion a year.

The budget is within the President's purview. The President/Executive Branch prepares it, and presents the budget to Congress. If one just adds the items outlined above: roughly $360 billion, it would be one small step in the right direction to get the U.S. back on a sustainable financial track. In the event the President does not have the guts to eliminate these needless expenditures and waste from the budget, Congress should bite the bullet, not authorize funding of the 2010-2011 budget, and, at a minimum, cut the above items and amounts from the Federal budget.