Saturday, April 21, 2012

Say Goodbye to the Euro - it's just a matter of time

HEADS, UP !!!

         Let's be frank, The EU ( European Union ) is the economic step-child of NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization ), the U.S. concoction of nations aligned against the then U.S.S.R.. NATO is nothing short of political arbitrage, with the U.S. at the helm; the EU is an economic derivative without direct U.S. control, spawned from the 12 protocols of the Treaty of Rome, 1957. A neat idea at the time, 1957, and for a short time thereafter while then participant nations, lead by Germany, were experiencing unprecedented economic growth. The focus was on economic growth experienced by the core nations: Germany, France and Italy; Germany doing the heavy lifting. Things were humming along when U.S. Financial Institutions, the pied-pipers of greed, lead the world into a financial depression. The U.S. lead depression exposed the weakness and flaws of the Euro and left the 17 Euro subscriber states to flounder.

        Greece was the tip of the iceberg engendering chatter from the ECB ( European Central Bank ) resulting in leveraged support for European Banks holding sovereign debt, in short the bail-out of Greece. Portugal, Spain and Italy are on the short list, and next in line. Forget the economic pundits, media pundits and the like, simple population demographics reveals the fundamental flaw when 17 EU /Euro nations with disparate populations and productivity, subscribe to a single currency, the Euro.

         Aside from the gibberish of economists and bankers, it all boils down to population and demographics: how many working German's will be willing to support the life styles of 130 + million people in the non-productive nations of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy + 11 other Euro subscribers like Ireland. Perhaps it's to early to include Italy, but things are not well in Italy. So take Greece, Portugal and Spain with combined populations of around 70 million and compare it with the population of Germany 82 million, 26% under 18 and 21% who are over 65, leaving an estimated workforce of 44 million minus 5.7% unemployment or 41.5 million working German's to carry the load and support the lifestyles of 70 million Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, with 61 million Italians soon to follow. Okay, France, with an estimated workforce of 30 million but 10% unemployment, 27 mil net [ 72% of the French workforce is in Services, i.e., non-industrial ], may be of some help, but neither Germany or France can sustain the burden of 15 failing member state economies. Just how many people can one working man or woman [ mainly German ] carry on their shoulders: two (2), three (3), four (4); say goodbye to the Euro.